CLAUSEWITZ IN THE ERA OF AUTONOMOUS WAR: THE RELEVANCE OF CLASSICAL STRATEGIES IN THE DYNAMICS OF TECHNOLOGICAL CONFLICT

Hiras M. S. Turnip(1*),

(1) Dislitbang TNI AD
(*) Corresponding Author

Abstract


Carl von Clausewitz's strategic thought, as formulated in On War, remains a foundational reference in the study of war and military strategy. However, the emergence of advanced technologies such as drones, artificial intelligence (AI), autonomous weapons, and cyber warfare has introduced significant challenges to the classical application of his principles. This article revisits the relevance of four core Clausewitzian concepts: the trinity of war, the fog of war, political dominance, and the center of gravity, by reinterpreting them within the context of technologically driven conflict. Through a qualitative, literature-based, and theoretical-critical approach, the study also evaluates the limits of Clausewitzian theory using the Russia–Ukraine war as a case study, which illustrates tensions between classical strategy and autonomous warfare. While the tools and methods of warfare have transformed, the fundamental nature of war as a violent and uncertain political phenomenon persists. The findings affirm that Clausewitz’s principles retain strategic value when applied contextually and adaptively. This article offers an original, cross-domain conceptual framework that integrates classical theory with AI-driven conflict, ethics, and technological transformation, providing a unified analytical lens for understanding future warfare.

Keywords


Clausewitz;military strategy;artificial intelligence;cyber conflict;autonomous warfare

References


Arquilla, J., & Ronfeldt, D. (1993). Cyberwar is coming! Comparative Strategy, 12(2). https://doi.org/10.1080/01495939308402915

Ashraf, N. (2025). The Paradox of Cyber Warfare and Clausewitz’s Conception of War. NUST Journal of International Peace & Stability, 8(1), 17–29. https://doi.org/10.37540/njips.v8i1.183

Bode, Ingvild., & Huelss, Hendrik. (2022). Autonomous Weapons Systems and International Norms. McGill-Queen’s University Press. https://doi.org/10.1515/9780228009245

Boulanin, V., Davison, N., Goussac, N., & Carlsson, M. P. (2020). Limits on Autonomy in Weapon Systems: Identifying Practical Elements of Human Control. https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2020-06/2006_limits_of_autonomy_0.pdf

Boulanin, V., & Verbruggen, M. (2017). Mapping the Development of Autonomy in Weapon Systems. https://www.sipri.org/publications/2017/policy-reports/mapping-development-autonomy-weapon-systems

Bracey, E. N. (2025). Artificial Intelligence (AI), Politics, Military Science and the Art of Future War. Social Science, Humanities and Sustainability Research, 6(1), 20–32. https://doi.org/10.22158/sshsr.v6n1p20

Business Insider. (2024, November). Ukraine’s drones behind 80% of Russian frontline casualties: Report. https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-drones-behind-80-russia-frontline-casualties-report-nyt-war-2024-11

Clausewitz, C. von. (1976). On War (M. Howard, P. Paret, & B. Brodie, Eds. & Trans.). Princeton University Press.

Cole, B. (2020). Clausewitz’s Wondrous Yet Paradoxical Trinity: The Nature of War as a Complex Adaptive System. JPME Today, JFQ 96(1st Quarter 2020), 42–49.

Cummings, M. L. (2017). Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Warfare. https://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/publications/research/2017-01-26-artificial-intelligence-future-warfare-cummings-final.pdf

Davison, N. (2018). A legal perspective: Autonomous weapon systems under international humanitarian law. In UNODA Occasional Papers: Perspectives on Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems (Vol. 30). UNODA. https://doi.org/10.18356/29a571ba-en

Dimitriu, G. (2020). Clausewitz and the politics of war: A contemporary theory. Journal of Strategic Studies, 43(5), 645–685. https://doi.org/10.1080/01402390.2018.1529567

Duguin, S., & Pavlova, P. (2023). The Role of Cyber in the Russian War against Ukraine: Its Impact and the Consequences for the Future of Armed Conflict. In Paper requested by the European Parliament’s subcommittee on Security and Defence (SEDE) (PE 702.594).

Echevarria, A. J. (2003). Clausewitz’s Center of Gravity: It’s not What We Thought. Naval War College Review, LVI(1), 108–123. https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/citations/ADA523742

Echevarria, A. J. (2007). Clausewitz and Contemporary War. Oxford University Press.

Enemark, C. (2024). Returning the War to Russia: Drones and Discrimination in the Defense of Ukraine. Ethics and International Affairs, 38(1), 54–63. https://doi.org/10.1017/S089267942400008X

Erickson, Jon. V. (2021). Clausewitz’s Perspective on Deterring Russian Malign Activities in Cyberspace. Military Review, September-October 2021, 6–11. https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Journals/Military-Review/English-Edition-Archives/September-October-2021/Erickson-Clausewitzs-Perspective/

Horowitz, M. C. (2018). The promise and peril of military applications of artificial intelligence. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 74(6), 1–7. https://thebulletin.org/2018/04/the-promise-and-peril-of-military-applications-of-artificial-intelligence/

ICRC. (2021). International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) position on autonomous weapon systems: ICRC position and background paper. International Review of the Red Cross, 102(915), 1335–1349. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1816383121000564

Jacobsen, J. T. (2014). Clausewitz and the Utility of Cyberattacks in War. International Journal of Cyber Warfare and Terrorism (IJCWT), 4(4), 1–16. https://doi.org/10.4018/ijcwt.2014100101

Lucas, G. (2020). Ethics and Military Strategy in the 21st Century: MovingBeyond Clausewitz. Routledge. https://www.routledge.com/Ethics-and-Military-Strategy-in-the-21st-Century-Moving-Beyond-Clausewitz/LucasJr/p/book/9781138731097

Lucas, G. (2022). Law, Ethics and Emerging Military Technologies: Confronting Disruptive Innovation (1st ed.). Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003273912

McFarland, T. (2022). Reconciling trust and control in the military use of artificial intelligence. International Journal of Law and Information Technology, 30(4), 472–483. https://doi.org/10.1093/ijlit/eaad008

Menthe, L., Zhang, L. A., Geist, E., Steier, J., Frank, A. B., Hegewald, E. Van, Briggs, G. J., Scholl, K., Ashpari, Y., & Jacques, A. (2024). Understanding the Limits of Artificial Intelligence for Warfighters: Volume 1, Summary. RAND Corporation. https://doi.org/10.7249/RRA1722-1

Meyer, E. L. (2022). The centre of gravity concept: contemporary theories, comparison, and implications. Defence Studies, 22(3), 327–353. https://doi.org/10.1080/14702436.2022.2030715

Rauti, S. (2020). Controlling Uncertainty with Proactive Cyber Defense: A Clausewitzian Perspective. In S. Thampi, G. Martinez Perez, R. Ko, & D. Rawat (Eds.), Security in Computing and Communications. SSCC 2019. Communications in Computer and Information Science (Vol. 1208): Vol. 1208 CCIS (pp. 335–347). Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-4825-3_27

Rid, T. (2012). Cyber War Will Not Take Place. Journal of Strategic Studies, 35(1), 5–2. https://doi.org/10.1080/01402390.2011.608939

Samus, M. (2024). Drone-Centric Warfare. Russia’s War in Ukraine, International Centre for Defence and Security, Estonia, 2(7). https://icds.ee/en/russias-war-in-ukraine-drone-centric-warfare/

Sayler, K. M. (2024). Emerging Military Technologies: Background and Issues for Congress. In Congressional Research Service. https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R46458

Scharre, P. (2016). Autonomous Weapons and Operational Risk: Ethical Autonomy Project. https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/autonomous-weapons-and-operational-risk

Scharre, P. (2018). Army of None: Autonomous Weapons and the Future of War. W. W. Norton.

Shah, S. R., Ahmed, F., & Khan, R. (2018). Writing a Critical Review of Literature: A Practical Guide for English Graduate Students. Global Language Review, III, 136–153. https://doi.org/10.31703/glr.2018(iii-i).09

Šlebir, M. (2022). Re-examining the center of gravity: Theoretical and structural analysis of the concept. Revista Cientifica General Jose Maria Cordova, 20(40), 1025–1044. https://doi.org/10.21830/19006586.979

Taddeo, M. (2016). Just Information Warfare. Topoi, 35(1), 213–224. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11245-014-9245-8

Templier, M., & Paré, G. (2015). A framework for guiding and evaluating literature reviews. Communications of the Association for Information Systems, 37(Paper 6), 112–137. https://doi.org/10.17705/1cais.03706

Tsotniashvili, Z. (2024). Defining the Rules of Engagement: Legal and Ethical Standards in Cyber Conflict. Journal of Digital Sociohumanities, 1(2), 119–132. https://doi.org/10.25077/jds.1.2.119-132.2024

Tyson Brown, Z. (2024). Future of Intelligence: “The Incalculable Element”: The Promise and Peril of Artificial Intelligence. Studies in Intelligence, 68(1 (Extracts, March 2024)). https://www.cia.gov/resources/csi/static/643e18ba5bf779749a14059019db53b2/Article-The-Promise-and-Peril-of-Artificial-Intelligence-Studies-68-1-March-2024.pdf

UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (UN-HRMMU). (2025, February 11). Short-range drones: The deadliest threat to civilians in Ukraine. News.Un.Org. https://news.un.org/en/story/2025/02/1160016

Valeriano, B., Jensen, B., & Maness, R. C. (2018). Cyber Strategy: The Evolving Character of Power and Coercion. In Cyber Strategy: The Evolving Character of Power and Coercion. Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780190618094.001.0001

Van Diggelen, J., Rowa, J., Aidman, E., & Vince, J. (2025). Designing AI-Enabled Countermeasures to Cognitive Warfare. ArXiv, abs/2504.11486. https://arxiv.org/abs/2504.11486

Winczewski, D. (2023). War in Ukraine and Enduring Relevance of the Clausewitzian Theory. Athenaeum Polskie Studia Politologiczne, 80(4). https://doi.org/10.15804/athena.2023.80.14

Yeremyan, A., & Yeremyan, L. (2022). International Law Issues of Cyber Defense. Moscow Journal of International Law, 2, 85. https://doi.org/10.24833/0869-0049-2022-2-85-100




DOI: https://doi.org/10.33172/jpbh.v15i2.19912

Copyright (c) 2025 Hiras M. S. Turnip


INDEXED BY:
google_scholar garuda crosref onesearch sinta NELITI

Office Address:
Lembaga Penelitian dan Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat
Republic of Indonesia Defense University
Jl. Salemba Raya No.14, Paseban,Jakarta Pusat, Daerah Khusus Ibukota Jakarta 10440, Indonesia
Email: jurnal.unhan@idu.ac.id



Creative Commons Attribution (CC-BY-NC-SA)

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.


View Jurnal Pertahanan dan Bela Negara Stats