Email this article 
INSURGENCY OF THE ETHNIC ARMED ORGANIZATIONS’ ROLE IN MYANMAR’S 2021 COUP: A TOTAL PEOPLE’S WAR ANALYSIS
(1) Republic of Indonesia Defense University
(2) Republic of Indonesia Defense University
(3) Republic of Indonesia Defense University
(4) Republic of Indonesia Defense University
(*) Corresponding Author
Abstract
This article attempts to uncover events in Myanmar during the 2021 coup and its relationship with the country's various Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs). The Tatmadaw initiated the 2021 coup because the civilian government's landslide victory was based on deceit and fraud. The aim was to ascertain whether the Ethnic Armed Organizations' (EAOs) inability to overturn the military coup is linked to their shortcomings in implementing the total people's war (TPW) strategy. To that end, this qualitative article utilized a historiography-analytical-based approach in its analysis. The analysis was grounded in a methodology that incorporated a framework encompassing Kiras' four concepts of a successful insurgency and Nasution's perspective on nationalism. The two methodological tools, therefore, consist of the concepts "space," "time," "support," and also "legitimacy." The EAOs' myriad backgrounds and resources make their implementation of the mentioned concept vary. The article concludes by saying that further research is needed to clarify and make other generalizations on the research question.
Keywords
Full Text:
PDFReferences
Avila, D. (2021). The Kachin Insurgency Could Deal a Heavy Blow to Myanmar’s Military Junta. Retrieved May 17, 2023, from The Diplomat website: https://thediplomat.com/2021/08/th e-Kachin-insurgency-could-deal-a- heavy-blow-to-Myanmar's-military- junta/
Bieber, F. (2018). Is Nationalism on the Rise? Assessing Global Trends. Ethnopolitics, 17(5), 519–540. https://doi.org/10.1080 17449057.2018.1532633
Braithwaite, A., & Johnson, S. D. (2012). Space–Time Modeling of Insurgency and Counterinsurgency in Iraq. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 28(1), 31–48. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10940-011-9152-8
Bünte, M. (2022). Ruling but not Governing: Tutelary Regimes and the Case of Myanmar. Government and Opposition, 57(2), 336–352. https://doi.org/10.1017/gov.2020.38
Campbell, S. (2021). Negotiating antifascist solidarity across ethnic difference in Myanmar: Bhamo Tin Aung’s Yoma Taikbwe. Critical Asian Studies, 53(3), 359–379. https://doi.org/10.1080/14672715.2021.1934886
Chido, D. E. (2020). Recommendations for Regaining Legitimacy. In D. E.
Chido (Ed.), Strategic Intelligence and Civil Affairs to Understand Legitimacy and Insurgency (pp. 51–69). Cham: Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-20977-3_4
Fearon, J. D., & Laitin, D. D. (2003). Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War. American Political Science Review, 97(01), 75–90. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055403000534
Fomin-Nilov, D. (2018). The Treachery, Collaboration, and Resistance: A Comparative Analysis of the Scandinavian Cases and USSR's Experience in the Second World War. Dialog so Vremenem, 64, 222–234.
Gat, A., & Clausewitz, C. von. (1993). Clausewitz and the Enlightenment. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Gray, C. S. (1999). Modern Strategy. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Harrisson, A. P. (2021). Fish Caught in Clear Water: Encompassed State-Making in Southeast Myanmar. Territory, Politics, Governance, 9(4), 533–552. https://doi.org/10.1080/21622671.2020.1743200
Herberg-Rothe, A. (2007). Clausewitz’s “Wondrous Trinity” as General Theory of War and Violent Conflict. Theoria, 54(114), 48–73. https://doi.org/10.3167/th.2007.5411404
International Crisis Group. (2022). Myanmar’s Coup Shakes Up Its Ethnic Conflicts. Retrieved From https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/south-east-asia/myanmar/myanmars-coup-shakes-its-ethnic-conflicts
Kiras, J. D. (2019). Irregular Warfare: Terrorism and Insurgency. In J. Baylis (Ed.), Strategy in the Contemporary World. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Long, J. M. (2009). Strategic Culture: Al-Qaeda, and Weapons of Mass
Destruction. In J. L. Johnson, K. M. Kartchner, & J. A. Larsen (Eds.), Strategic Culture and Weapons of Mass Destruction: Culturally Based Insights into Comparative National Security Policymaking. London: Palgrave Macmillan.
Marks, T. A., & Rich, P. B. (2017). Back to the future – people’s war in the 21st century. Small Wars & Insurgencies, 28(3), 409–425. https://doi.org/10.1080/09592318.2017.1307620
Millar, T. (2023, January 1). The China-Myanmar Economic Corridor, 2 Years After the Coup. Retrieved May 17, 2023, from The Diplomat website: https://thediplomat.com/2023/02/the-china-myanmar-economic-corridor-2-years-after-the-coup/
Myanmar Peace Monitor. (2023, May 9). Myanmar Armed Conflict Dashboard (Jan 2020 - May 9 2023). Retrieved May 19, 2023, from Myanmar Peace Monitor website: https://mmpeacemonitor.org/
Nasution, A. H. (1965). Fundamentals of Guerilla Warfare. London: Pall Mall.
Nasution, A. H. (1984). Pokok-Pokok Gerilya dan Pertahanan Republik Indonesia di Masa Lalu dan yang Akan Datang. Bandung: Angkasa.
Nurbantoro, E., Midhio, W., Risman, H., Prakoso, L. Y., & Widjayanto, J. (2022). Perang Kemerdekaan Indonesia (1945-1949) dalam Perspektif Strategi Perang Semesta. Jurnal Pendidikan Tambusai, 5(3), 10520–10530.
Ong, A. (2021). Ethnic Armed Organisations in Post-Coup Myanmar: New Conversations Needed (No. 79). Singapore. Retrieved From https://www.iseas.edu.sg/articles-commentaries/iseas-perspective/2021-79-ethnic-armed-organisations-in-post-coup-myanmar-new-conversations-needed-by-andrew-ong/.
Paliwal, A., & Staniland, P. (2022). Strategy, Secrecy, and External Support for Insurgent Groups. International Studies Quarterly, 67(1). https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqad001
Sablosky, J. (2021). “Dangerous organizations: Facebook’s content moderation decisions and ethnic visibility in Myanmar.” Media, Culture and Society, 43(6), 1017–1042. https://doi.org/10.1177/0163443720987751
Smith, H. (2005). On Clausewitz: A Study of Military and Political Ideas. London: Palgrave Macmillan.
Smith, M. L. R. (2003). Guerrillas in the mist: Reassessing strategy and low-intensity warfare. Review of International Studies, 29(1), 19–37. https://doi.org/10.10171S0260210503000020
South, A. (2021). Towards “Emergent Federalism” in Post-coup Myanmar. Contemporary Southeast Asia, 43(3), 439–460. https://doi.org/10.1355/cs43-3a
Stokke, K., Moo Kham, K. K., Nge, N. K. L., & Kvanvik, S. H. (2022). Illiberal peacebuilding in a hybrid regime. Authoritarian strategies for conflict containment in Myanmar. Political Geography, 93, 1–14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2021.102551
Sun, Y. (2022). One Year After Divisions Undermine Myanmar's Coup, Old and New Resistance. Retrieved From https://www.brookings.edu/articles/one-year-after-myanmars-coup-old-and-new-resistance-is-undermined-by-divisions/.
Syarifuddin, K. F., Prakoso, L. Y., & Widjayanto, J. (2021). Total War Implemented in Defence Diplomacy: Case Study of The Renegotiation of the Defence Cooperation Agreement Between the Government of The Republic of Indonesia and The Government of Singapore (DCA Indonesia-Singapore). Jurnal Pertahanan, 7(1), 50–60. https://doi.org/10.33172/jp.v7i1.1118
Tanjung, A., Midhio, W., & Syarifuddin, K. F. (2021). Kajian Literatur: Penerapan Strategi Perang Semesta dalam Perang Asimetris yang dilakukan Oleh Indonesia. Jurnal Strategi Perang Semesta |, 7(2), 144–160. https://jurnalprodi.idu.ac.id/index.php/SPS/article/view/685.
Thawnghmung, A. M., & Htoo, S. A. W. E. H. (2022). The Fractured Centre: “Two-headed government” and threats to the peace process in Myanmar. Modern Asian Studies, 56(2), 504–532. https://doi.org/10.1017S0026749X20000372
Turner, B. (2017). A. H. Nasution and Indonesia’s Elites: “People’s Resistance” in the War of Independence and Postwar Politics. Mayland: Lexington Books.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.33172/jpbh.v13i3.19450
Copyright (c) 2023 Jurnal Pertahanan dan Bela Negara
INDEXED BY:
Office Address:
Lembaga Penelitian dan Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat
Republic of Indonesia Defense University
Jl. Salemba Raya No.14, Paseban,Jakarta Pusat, Daerah Khusus Ibukota Jakarta 10440, Indonesia
Email: jurnal.unhan@idu.ac.id
Creative Commons Attribution (CC-BY-NC-SA)
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
View Jurnal Pertahanan dan Bela Negara Stats